Title: The Autumn of Patriarchy

Speaker: Anson Linshuo Zhou, Assistant Professor of the Business School, University of Hong Kong since 2023. He obtained a doctoral degree in economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 2022, and also holds a master's degree in economics from New York University and a bachelor's degree in economics and finance from the University of Hong Kong. His research interests focus on macroeconomics and labor economics, with a particular focus on fertility, human capital, inequality and intergenerational mobility. His research results have been published in journals such as Economics Letters, Journal of Monetary Economics and Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers.

Abstract: This paper develops a unified theory to explain the concurrent declines in fertility, marriage, and gender income gaps observed during the grand gender convergence (Goldin 2014). The model integrates these phenomena through two mechanisms: (1) fertility reduces the labor supply of females relative to males; and (2) equilibrium fertility and within-household transfers clear the marriage market. The analysis offers three new insights. First, there exists a tension among high fertility, widespread dual-parenthood, and gender income equality, making it difficult for all three to coexist simultaneously in an economy—an insight supported by data. Second, rising total factor productivity alone is sufficient to drive all three phenomena, without requiring factor- or gender-biased technological changes. Third, the pace of this transition varies significantly across countries, shaped by differences in social norms governing marriage. These findings provide a cohesive framework for understanding the economic and social forces reshaping family structure and gender dynamics in the modern era.

Date & time: 30 April 2025, 10:00 - 11:30

Venue: B321, Zhixin Building, Central Campus, Shandong University