Title: The Fertility Race Between Technology and Social Norms

Speaker: Anson Linshuo Zhou, Assistant Professor of the Business School, University of Hong Kong since 2023. He obtained a doctoral degree in economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 2022, and also holds a master's degree in economics from New York University and a bachelor's degree in economics and finance from the University of Hong Kong. His research interests focus on macroeconomics and labor economics, with a particular focus on fertility, human capital, inequality and intergenerational mobility. His research results have been published in journals such as Economics Letters, Journal of Monetary Economics and Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers.

Abstract: Global fertility rates are falling sharply below replacement levels, an unprecedented phenomenon that poses pressing challenges for many countries. Studies show that in economies experiencing rapid structural changes, even when income growth factors are controlled for, the fertility decline rate is faster. Moreover, this correlation is stronger in societies with rigid social norms. To explain these facts, a quantitative model of child bargaining is constructed, in which equilibrium fertility reflects the tug-of-war between technological progress and social norms of childrearing. A novel feature of the model is that social norms evolve endogenously in the economy, influenced by the views of all groups, which in turn depend on past childrearing choices. After calibration with South Korean data, the model shows that strong social pressure and the reluctance of older groups to adapt delay the adjustment of fair childrearing, exacerbate the decline in fertility and consolidate rigid norms. It is predicted that as social norms gradually converge to a new steady state, fertility will recover slowly but eventually. Policies promoting gender-equal childrearing may accelerate this process.

Date & time: 29 April 2025, 10:00 - 13:00

Venue: B321, Zhixin Building, Central Campus, Shandong University