Title: Micro Shocks and Macro Fluctuations in the Information Network

Speaker: Li Minghao, Assistant Professor of the National School of Development, Peking University. His main research fields are macroeconomics and monetary economics, with research interests focusing on monetary policy transmission mechanisms, as well as production networks and information frictions in the economy.

Abstract: This study focuses on how the heterogeneity of firms' attention allocation amplifies micro shocks into aggregate economic fluctuations:

    Empirical level: Based on data on firms' activities of browsing each other's electronic filings on the EDGAR platform, it is found that the attention received by firms follows a "fat-tailed distribution"—a few firms occupy most of the attention; at the same time, the sales growth index weighted by browsing volume has significant predictive power for macroeconomic forecasts based on survey data.

    Theoretical level: It extends the "noise business cycle" framework of Angelos and La’O (2010), introduces asymmetric attention at the firm level through directed graphs, and deduces the conditions for the emergence of the "granular effect" even if firms are homogeneous in size, and analyzes the interaction between attention allocation and firm size heterogeneity in amplifying micro shocks.

    Quantitative analysis: Attention heterogeneity alone can drive micro shocks to trigger significant aggregate fluctuations; the degree of complementarity between attention asymmetry and firm size heterogeneity depends critically on the correlation between the two.

Date & time: 09 December 2025, 10:00 - 12:00

Venue: B321, Block B, Zhixin Building, Central Campus, Shandong University