Journal of Economic History

Volume 74, Issue 2, June 2014, pp.509-534

Autarky and the Rise and Fall of Piracy in Ming China

James Kai-sing Kung ^(a1) and Chicheng Ma ^(a2)

^(a1) Yan Ai Foundation Professor of Social Science, and Senior Fellow of the Institute for Advanced Study, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology,

^(a2) Assistant Professor, School of Economics, Shandong University

We examine the impact of rigorous trade suppression during 1550–1567 on the sharp rise of piracy in this period of Ming China. By analyzing a uniquely constructed historical data set, we find that the enforcement of a “sea (trade) ban” policy led to a rise in pirate attacks that was 1.3 times greater among the coastal prefectures more suitable for silk manufactures—our proxy for greater trade potential. Our study illuminates the conflicts in which China subsequently engaged with the Western powers, conflicts that eventually resulted in the forced abandonment of its long upheld autarkic principle.