Title: How Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect AI Technology Innovation? Evidence from the U.S.–China Trade War

Speaker: Song Huasheng, Professor and Doctoral Supervisor, Executive Director of the Institute of International Economics, School of Economics, Zhejiang University. He holds a doctoral degree in Economics from the University of Leuven, Belgium. His research focuses on international economics, industrial organization, and innovation economics.

Abstract: We exploit the exogenous shock of the U.S.–China trade conflict as a quasi-natural experiment to examine the impact of increased trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on firms’ artificial intelligence (AI) innovation. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we show that heightened TPU significantly increases innovation outcomes among Chinese AI firms. Mechanism analyses suggest that this effect operates primarily through intensified product-market competition, stronger market selection, and reduced access to foreign technology inputs. Heterogeneity analyses further indicate that the effect is more pronounced for firms closer to the technological frontier, firms in high-tech industries, and firms located in regions hosting national exemplary software colleges. Overall, our findings shed light on how firms respond to external policy shocks through innovation-driven adjustments.

Date & time: 30 April 2026, 09:00 - 11:00

Venue: B321, Zhixin Building, Central Campus, Shandong University