Title: Gains and Losses of Supply Chain Restructuring: A Structural Estimation for the United States

Speaker: Luo Changyuan, Professor of the School of Economics and Director of the Institute of World Economy, Fudan University; Leading Talent in Philosophy and Social Sciences of the National Talent Program; Chief Expert of the Major Project of the National Social Science Fund. Currently, he serves as Vice President of the Chinese Society of World Economics and President of the Shanghai Society of World Economics. He specializes in international economics and development economics research, and has profound academic accumulation and extensive influence in fields such as global supply chains and the global impact of China's foreign trade.

Abstract: This study expands the model framework of Grossman et al. (2024), constructs a theoretical model covering firms' multi-country procurement behavior, and analyzes the impact mechanism and policy trade-offs of tariff policies on supply chains:

    Model and core findings: The model allows firms to import alternative intermediate goods from multiple countries. The study shows that firms' optimal procurement strategies ignore social externalities, leading to excessive diversification of supply chains and ultimately reducing overall social welfare;

    Characterization of policy trade-offs: Combined with the political economy framework of Grossman and Helpman (1994), it systematically presents the government's policy choice logic      between "welfare goals" and "strategic goals";

    Quantitative evaluation results: Under the "Trump 1.0" tariff policy, the diversification of  firms' supply chains amplified the negative welfare effects of tariffs  (social welfare decreased by about 5%); if the government incorporates national security into policy considerations, it tends to impose higher tariffs.

The conclusions of this study provide quantitative basis and policy references for the current adjustment of global trade policies and the practice of supply chain restructuring.

Date & time: 12 December 2025, 09:00

Venue: B321, Zhixin Building, Central Campus, Shandong University