Title: Information Treatments, Hypotheticals, and Event Studies: Comparative Estimates

Speaker: Kuang Pei, Associate Professor of Macroeconomics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Macau; Ph.D. in Economics, Goethe University Frankfurt, Germany. His research direction is macro-finance and monetary economics, focusing on empirical and theoretical analysis of imperfect knowledge of macroeconomics and finance, with an emphasis on macroeconomic policy formulation and issues related to expectation formation and learning. His research results have been published in international renowned journals such as "NBER Macroeconomics Annual", "Journal of the European Economic Association" and "Journal of Monetary Economics".

Abstract: Using two waves of survey experiments around the September 2025 FOMC meeting, we study household expectations’ responses to monetary policy announcements. In the baseline wave conducted shortly before the meeting, more than half of the respondents attributed inflation to supply-side factors such as tariffs, production costs, and supply chain disruptions, while only a small number pointed out demand-side factors. In the hypothetical scenario experiment, we find that a positive FOMC decision shock increases short-term and medium-term inflation expectations, reduces expectations of economic activity, and increases unemployment expectations, while a negative shock has the opposite effect. Following up with the same respondents shortly after the September 2025 FOMC decision, we find that those who reported hearing the correct news updated their expectations in a way very similar to the response to the hypothetical scenario. Finally, in a randomized controlled trial with the same sample, we find that explicitly providing the Fed’s decision produces a degree of expectation revision comparable to that of real-world FOMC decision shocks and hypothetical scenario treatments.

Date & time: 3 November 2025, 10:00-12:00

Venue: B310, Zhixin Building, Central Campus, Shandong University