Topic:Trade, Human Capital, and Income Risk

Lecturer:Liuchun Deng

Liuchun Deng is an assistant professor of economics at the National University of Singapore and Yale College, Singapore University. He received his Bachelor's degree in Economics from Peking University and his Bachelor's degree from Johns Hopkins University. The research focuses on international trade and labor economics, and also deals with theoretical issues related to dynamic economics. He has published 8 academic papers in Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Economic Theory,Journal of Mathematical Economics and other top international journals.

Abstract:

This lecture focuses on the impact of international trade on the labor market, studies the theoretical results based on specific factor models, and explores the impact of international trade on the fluctuation of labor income. The empirical study uses detailed German labor data from 1976 to 2012 to study the impact of the rapid rise of China and Eastern Europe in international trade on the German labor market after the 1990s. Our results suggest that there is a causal relationship between international trade and income risk: import shocks significantly increase income volatility, while exports reduce it to some extent. Importantly, the link between human capital and trade and income fluctuations has a complex interaction: on average, people with higher industry or occupational expertise are at lower risk. However, an increase in net imports by industry significantly increases the risk for workers with higher qualifications in those industries. Therefore, from a risk perspective, workers with higher levels of industry expertise may be at greater risk in industries with high trade exposure.

Time:10:00-11:30 a.m, November 15th,2024

Venue: B321, Zhixin Building, Central Campus