Topic:Happiness Dynamics, Reference Dependence, and Motivated Beliefs in U.S.Presidential Elections

Lecturer:Jiannan Zhou

Jiannan Zhou,Assistant researcher, School of Economics, Shandong University.His research interests include behavioral economics, macroeconomics and econometrics. His research results have been published in journals such as Economics Letters, and he has served as an anonymous reviewer for international journals such as Review of Economics and Statistics, and presided over the Natural Science Foundation project of Shandong Province.

Abstract:

Collecting and analyzing panel data over the last four U.S. presidential elections,we study the drivers of self-reported happiness. We relate our empirical findings to existing models of elation, reference dependence, and belief formation. In addition to corroborating previous findings in the literature (hedonic asymmetry/hedonic loss aversion, hedonic adaptation and motivated beliefs), we provide novel results that extend the literature in four dimensions. First, happiness responds to changes relative to both the political status quo (i.e., the incumbent presidential party) and the expected electoral outcome, providing support for two major hypotheses regarding reference point formation. Individuals exhibit hedonic loss aversion to deviations from expectations, but hedonic loss neutrality to changes from the status quo. Second the speed of hedonic adaptation to deviations from the status quo is significantly slower than the speed of hedonic adaptation to surprises.

Time:12:15-13:15p.m,May 30th,2024

Venue:B321,Zhixin Building,Central Campus