Title: BKK Meets Romer: International Business Cycles in the Knowledge Economy

Speaker: He Chengyuan, Assistant Professor of the Department of International Economics and Trade and Cho Shih-chun Economic Research Institute, School of Economics, Xiamen University. He obtained a doctoral degree from the University of Rochester, USA. His research fields are international macroeconomics and international trade, and his current research interests include international industrial chains, firm dynamics, trade dynamics, international business cycles, and inventory adjustment.

Abstract: Innovation, technology adoption, and international knowledge spillovers are the core of understanding medium-term international business cycles. Empirically, this paper integrates multi-country trade, patent stock, and citation network data, revealing three key facts: (1) Trade enhances the co-movement of international GDP and total factor productivity (TFP), with this effect being particularly significant in the medium term; (2) Knowledge spillovers are achieved through trade and follow the connection logic of the global citation network; (3) Trade disruptions harm innovation activities and knowledge spillover effects.

On this basis, this paper constructs an international real business cycle model incorporating endogenous innovation, gradual technology adoption, and cross-border knowledge diffusion. Quantitative analysis shows that temporary trade shocks can trigger persistent GDP responses through interaction with the endogenous dynamics of technology adoption and knowledge diffusion. These results indicate that the dynamic mechanisms of innovation and knowledge diffusion amplify the transmission effect of temporary trade shocks, transforming them into sustained medium-term economic cycle fluctuations.

Date & time: 24 November 2025, 10:00 - 12:00

Venue: B321, Block B, Zhixin Building, Central Campus, Shandong University